Newt Gingrich, the former Republican Speaker of the House who led the impeachment hearings against Bill Clinton, isn’t exactly the most post-partisan figure. But like him or not, he can sense a demographic train-wreck coming for his current party.
This realization that if the GOP doesn’t broaden just its message, but its appeal, has led Gingrich to start a primitive but important website, The Americano, which attempts to sell Latinos on a right-of-center approach to politics.
Now the Web site, which doesn’t rank anywhere near the top of Spanish language news sites in America, represents something that Republican leaders need to realize, and realize soon: if they do not broaden their appeal equally well to all demographic groups, they are in for long-term electoral damage.
Simply put, the days that Republicans can simply “turn out the base” and win elections have ended. Most Republican leaders are familiar with the statistics I’m about to cite, but it doesn’t mean they are any less important. They know they only won 31 percent of Hispanic voters, after carrying 40 percent in 2004, and only 4 percent of African American voters, according to Pew Research polling.
The problem here is that the proportion of Hispanics and African Americans in the electorate is growing, whereas the proportion of white Americans (the only major race that Republicans carried last November) is actually shrinking. In fact, according to census data, a majority of Americans will be non-white by 2042.
But the fact that Republicans are in major trouble demographically is already well established. The real question that Republican politicians and operatives are asking right now is precisely how they can widen their appeal, while reconciling their increasingly conservative base. With this question, I think there are a few relatively simple ways Republicans can help slow the trend, but long term, they are going to need to partially reinterpret conservativism to help it appeal to minority (soon to become majority) voters.
The first big step Republicans can take is simply showing up. As Woody Allen famously said, “90 percent of life is showing up.” Republicans need to show up to major Hispanic events to represent their party. This means showing up to the very conferences of different organizations that they have bashed before. This includes conferences like La Raza, an organization that during the Sonia Sotomayor confirmation hearings some Republicans called a “Hispanic KKK.”
Locally, there are no reasons why Republicans shouldn’t set up tents or tables near cultural events. Just being there, making the appeal for their movement, is something that will have long term benefits towards their appeal to non-white voters.
Another key factor is the increased recruitment of Hispanic candidates for 2010. Right now, in the Republican caucus, there are only four Representatives and no Senators. That means that out of the 217 Republican members of the House and Senate, less than 2 percent are Hispanic. For a major political party in any country, such a vast racial disparity is unsustainable if Republicans expect to gain back either house of Congress in the next 40 years.
This means Republicans need to make a conscientious effort to recruit Hispanics, not just for Congressional and Senatorial races, but also in more local levels. If Republicans expect to get Hispanic votes, they need to convince Hispanics that they are needed and welcome in their party.
But the problems are more fundamental then just getting Hispanics to run for office. Republicans need to define their predominant idea, conservativism, in a way that appeals to a broad cross section of Hispanics. This means a few issues should be reframed or thrown out entirely.
This includes immigration. Republicans, for too long, have allowed themselves to be portrayed as the party that has the tendency to lump all Hispanics in the category of “illegals.” Fundamentally, this perception has to change. Republicans must make a clear effort to eradicate all anti-Hispanic major voices in their party. Too often, one can go on TV and hear former Rep. Tom Tancredo make another anti-illegal immigration rant. Rather then focus on the illegal immigrant problem with all their energy, they should focus clearly on giving Hispanics as many paths to citizenship as possible.
Additionally, they need to present themselves as a party of ideas and not let the Democrats' caricature of them as the party of “No” carry any real weight. Because the Hispanic population is a rapidly emerging and fairly new demographic in America, if Republicans can present themselves as having real ideas for how to solve health care and environmental problems, they can generate a real appeal to Hispanics, many of whom are struggling to afford health care and getting a job in our economy.
The idea here is simple. Republicans got blasted in 2008 and lost every level of Congress not only because of the failure, in voters eyes, of the Bush administration, but also because they are on the wrong side of increasingly difficult demographic shifts. If they don’t fix this, they won’t just become the minority for 4 years, they will stay that way for 40 years.
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